Well, here we are. We've completed our last trip around the sun before the 2020 census gets underway. And once again, as we do every December, we take a look at the latest population estimates for each of the 50 states from Census Bureau -- and your friendly neighborhood reapportionment nerd is ready to roll. For over a decade, I've been tracking Oregon's progress toward a sixth congressional seat.

And you know what? In 2016, we projected a sixth seat for the first time, and it's looking safer than ever.

Our sixth seat this year ranks #427, it's definitely happening. (The last seat is #435.)

The big news this year? For the first time in history, it seems that California is poised to lose a congressional seat. Right now, they're at 53. But based on this final population estimate, California's 53rd seat is at outer edge of the bubble, ranked #439.

What else? If the 2019 census estimates are right, Texas will pick up two seats. States picking up one are: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon. States losing one are: California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and West Virginia.

Right on the bubble? Ohio could lose one. Florida could pick up a second. Maybe Montana doesn't get the +1 and Minnesota dodges losing one. (And the potential out-of-nowhere surprise? A third seat for Idaho.)

The decades-long population shift from the midwest and northeast to the south and far west continues unabated (excepting California.)

Previously:

• Reapportionment: Stay on target, stay on target - Dec 2018
• Yes, Oregon, we're on track for a sixth congressional seat - Dec 2017
• Boom! Oregon is almost certain to get a SIXTH congressional seat - Dec 2016
• As people flock to Oregon, prospects for a sixth congressional seat perk up - Dec 2015
• Will 2020 be the year that Oregon gets a sixth congressional seat? - Jan 2014
• Reapportionment Day! - Dec. 2010
• Waiting on reapportionment. Will Oregon get a sixth? - Dec. 2010
• Coal in our stocking: prospects dim for a sixth congressional district - Dec 2009
• Why the DC Voting Rights bill may turn out to be HUGE for Oregon - Feb. 2009
• A sixth congressional seat? Prospects improve... - Dec. 2008
• Will Oregon pick up a sixth congressional seat? Don't be so sure. - Nov. 2008
• New US House Seat Predicted for Oregon - Nov. 2007